Pan-democrats are forecast to have a rough day at the polls this weekend, writes Chris Yeung

Sporting bright vests and brandishing placards, the three election hopefuls and their aides stood within metres of each other, spruiking for votes among morning rush-hour commuters. The scene outside the Fo Tan KCR station opposite Jubilee Garden was one of the more colourful scenes around Hong Kong this week in the countdown to Sunday's district council elections.

Accompanied by the biggest campaign team, prominent pharmacist Scarlett Pong Oi-lan handed out fliers and greeted residents in her effort to win the Fo Tan seat on Sha Tin District Council. Nearby were the incumbent, Richard Tsoi Yiu-cheong, and Wong Mei-ngan, who lives in the area and runs a restaurant with her husband. About half of Fo Tan's 15,000-odd registered voters live in the Jubilee Garden complex.

While Fo Tan constituency's electioneering scenes can hardly steal the limelight from the highly publicised race between Anson Chan Fang On-sang, Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee and six other contenders for next month's Legco by-election, the dynamics behind the three-horse race in Fo Tan say something about the changing social and political scene in Hong Kong as it enters election season.

A total of 2.96 million registered voters are eligible to cast their votes among a total of 878 candidates for 365 seats up for grabs in 18 district councils. Forty seats will be returned unopposed. Billed as the fiercest election in the low-tier political structure, results of the elections, a barometer of the political climate, will have profound implications for the next full Legco election in September next year.

With the backing of a Beijing-friendly group, New Century Forum, and the advantage of being a household name, Ms Pong is wading into politics. She has in the past played an active role in the government-sponsored Sha Tin Festival which included dozens of variety events last year. She also has pledged to turn Fo Tan, a district with mixed industrial, commercial and residential developments, into a "healthy, safe" place to live.

"No one has done anything in the last four years. The face-lifting maintenance project and renovation of the wet market in Jubilee Garden are high on my agenda if I'm elected," she said.

Ms Pong, 48, was apparently aiming her comments at 40-year-old Tsoi, a long-time pro-democracy activist who "parachuted" into Fo Tan and won the seat at the 2003 poll. Insisting she has no political affiliation, Ms Pong denied rumours that she was associated with the pro-Beijing flagship Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong. "District work doesn't need [the backing of] political parties," she said.

Mr Tsoi, whose candidacy is backed by the pan-democratic alliance, last weekend sent out a letter to voters claiming a "state of emergency".

He told the South China Morning Post: "The 'July 1 effect' factor is long gone {hellip} I'd like to make sure supporters for democracy come out and vote. It's also clear residents have attached more importance to concrete work of candidates in their district. That's why I've campaigned on a dual-track theme of both democracy and the well-being of interests {hellip} it's a tough battle."

The third candidate, Ms Wong, took a more relaxed approach and said she couldn't rely on the strong backing given to her rivals.

Ms Wong said she planned to do a better job in promoting the needs of residents if she won. "If I had big political ambitions, I would have run for the Legco," she said, but added that "the campaign for the [district council] election has become so political it's as if we were running for Legco."

Although the district polls are still dominated by candidates from four long-established parties, the entry of two newly launched parties has injected fresh life into the contest.

The DAB's fleet of 177 candidates is the largest among political parties, followed by the Democratic Party (108), the Liberal Party (56) and the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (38).

The Civic Party, inaugurated last year, put together a squad of 42 in their election debut, featuring rising young political stars such as Tanya Chan Suk-chong (The Peak constituency) and Tsang Kwok-fung (Tai Po Hui). Another newcomer in elective politics is the League of Social Democrats, which is sponsoring 27 hopefuls.

Of the other candidates, many who claim to be "independent" are widely seen to be close allies of the pro-Beijing, pro-government force. They have been described as "invisible left-wing candidates" and "below-water DAB members" by the pan-democratic camp.

In a hurried response this week, the pan-democrats under the banner of the Democratic Coalition for DC Election published on the internet details of the political affiliations of some of the independent candidates.

With political tensions having eased greatly since the rally on July 1, 2003, democrats admit they're in for a tough day on Sunday. They fear the feel-good sentiment of a strong economy means voters will shun the ballot box. A low turnout is likely to benefit the pro-Beijing camp.

Professor Joseph Cheng Yu-shek, of City University's Department of Public and Social Administration, and a key election strategist for the Civic Party, said the government's lack of enthusiasm for the event and the "cool treatment" of the DAB in election publicity had further dampened the election atmosphere.

"Candidates are all working very hard. But people have reacted coolly to the campaign," he said.

"We'd like to have more political issues like universal suffrage on the election agenda. But the media are not interested in district council elections. People feel disappointed and helpless with the lack of progress over universal suffrage.

"Under the present executive-led system, pan-democrats don't have much room for political manoeuvrings on livelihood issues. And it's true to say we democrats haven't been able to come up with ideas on livelihood issues that have deeply impressed the people."

Voter turnout hit a high of 44 per cent at the 2003 district council election, in the wake of the July 1 protest that year which was stirred by controversy over the mishandling of the national security bill. The turnout rate of previous district polls ranged between 33 and 38 per cent.

Dr Li Pang-kwong, a political scientist at Lingnan University, said the district council election battles had been diluted by several factors such as the Legco by-election.

"Voters accord more importance to the candidates' record of service in their districts. The 'political party effect' remains an important, albeit hidden factor, in voters' behaviour," he said.

Dr Li said political parties remained strategically important in district council polls and the district network formed a pillar of political parties' campaigns for Legco.

"It will be interesting to see how the Civic Party performs in the district council elections. They have quite a few young, talented candidates who don't have a strong district service record. The party will suffer a big blow if they fail in their election debut," he said.

Political observers tip the DAB to emerge as the big winner by regaining the ground it lost in the 2003 polls. The Democrats and the ADPL, given their established district work, are tipped to achieve fair results. Both the Civic Party and the Liberal Party may end up the losers.

Ivan Choy Chi-keung of the Chinese University's government and public administration department said the pan-democrats would only have themselves to blame if they failed. He said they had not taken advantage of their success in winning new constituencies in 2003.

"It's disappointing that the democrats again have to play the 'emergency' card among supporters of the pro-democratic camp on the eve of election day - as they have done previously. They're running out of fresh ideas to show how they differ from their rivals.

"The pendulum of politics is likely to swing in favour of the pro-Beijing force in the district council election. People don't want universal suffrage to become the single issue at the expense of district matters in district polls. They'd like to see a more balanced profile of candidates."

The expected synergy between Anson Chan's election battle and the pan-democrats' campaign in district council elections has failed to materialise.

"So far, the two election campaigns are virtually disconnected. Instead of bringing about mutual benefits to each other, the opposite is true," Mr Choy said.

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Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee yesterday questioned how many people who had criticised the controversial shelved Article 23 national security bill had "actually looked at it", while admitting she had paid a price for promoting it when she was security chief.

Mrs Ip also said people should compromise rather than support her main Legislative Council by-election rival Anson Chan Fang On-sang's universal suffrage proposal, which she said sought change only by claiming "moral superiority".

Speaking during a lunch at the Foreign Correspondents' Club, Mrs Ip said she had paid heavily for promoting Article 23. She has since apologised for angering people with her hardline approach.

While conceding that she had had to stay "away from home for three years" in the United States following her resignation in 2003, Mrs Ip defended herself when asked if she had been given a bad bill to promote.

"I wonder how many people who criticised the bill have actually looked at it. I will leave it to people who may have time now to really study all the detailed clauses to think again about its substance," Mrs Ip said. She said her reform proposal, which has been criticised for containing a mechanism to vet out dissidents, would be more acceptable to Beijing than Mrs Chan's universal suffrage proposal.

Mrs Ip has proposed requiring candidates for the chief executive election to receive support from all quarters, including Beijing loyalists and businesspeople, if they are to run for election in 2012. Mrs Chan has called for free universal suffrage by 2012.

"I think most Hong Kong people are realistic. You can't make things happen just by claiming moral superiority. You have to make sure your package as a whole is acceptable to people other than the pan-democrats," she said.

Mrs Chan said Hong Kong would not forget how 500,000 protesters demanded universal suffrage and opposed Article 23 in 2003. She urged the public to demonstrate their democratic aspirations with their votes.

Speaking after meeting grass-roots women's groups, she said universal suffrage was desirable because everybody should have the right to take part in an equal and open election without any candidates being unfairly vetted. In her blog yesterday, Mrs Chan urged the public to vote in the district council elections on Sunday with the July 1 spirit.

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Former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee said yesterday the best way to achieve democracy in Hong Kong was to convince Beijing the proposal being put forward was firmly grounded in the Basic Law.

Addressing the Foreign Correspondents Club, Ip said the platform of her main rival in the December 2 Legislative Council by-election, Anson Chan Fang On-sang, was ``too rigid and lacking in details'' while hers was pragmatic, complied with the Basic Law, and more likely to win Beijing's acceptance.

``My speech today will not disappoint in terms of substance and ideas as opposed to empty talk and sloganeering,'' Ip said.

Proclaiming herself a ``candidate with independent views,'' Ip said she would strive to convince Beijing of her own proposal for Hong Kong's future constitutional reforms.

Without directly quoting Chan's claim of ``moral superiority,'' Ip denounced what she called empty talk about visionary missions and failing to put them into practice.

``To make democracy happen in Hong Kong, it is not good enough to claim moral superiority. The best way to persuade Beijing to give Hong Kong democracy is to convince its leaders that our proposals are firmly grounded in our constitution.

``I wish to stress that the key difference between my proposals, and those of Mrs Anson Chan and her supporters, is that mine stands a much stronger chance of being accepted by other sectors of our community than the pan-democrats', and by the authorities in Beijing. As such, they have a better chance of being turned into reality,'' Ip said.

Ip criticized Chan for focusing on a single issue and a single agenda.

``Another way to look at the difference between Mrs Chan's proposals and mine is: do you wish to have a candidate with broad interests and a broad appeal with a modicum of support from, and the ability to represent, industrialists, workers, business professionals and elected representatives from different sectors against a proposal that has the support of a single party, a single issue, a single candidate with narrow views and lacking in broad support?''

Ip said Chan's decision to drop the 2016 option and to concentrate only on 2012 made her proposal uncompromising and ``too rigid.''

Ip also tried to justify her proposal of a ``screening mechanism'' for the nomination of chief executive candidates by saying similar proposals had been made by pan-democratic scholars like Chu Yiu-ming, Ma Ngok and Chan Kin-man, all of whom felt it was necessary for a candidate to obtain backing from all four sections of the nominating committee.

Ip brushed aside suggestions she was lagging behind Chan in various polls, saying there were bound to be ups and downs in surveys.

``More importantly, one should not walk on air when it is up; or lose one's nerve when it plunges,'' she said.

To prepare for next Saturday's televised election debate, Ip said: ``I will sleep more and smile more.''

There are six other contestants in the by-election: barrister Lee Wing-kin, Lok Ma Chau-Hong Kong Freight Association chairman Stanley Tandon Lal Chiang, former anti-communist activist Lau Yuk-shing, solicitor Siu See-kong (alias Xi Hua Seng), company director Cecilia Ling Wai-wan, and heritage activist Ho Loy. [email protected]

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