Despite her claims, doubts remain about whether Regina Ip's political comeback achieved any inroads, writes Chris Yeung

The jury is still out on the election debut of what has been deemed the joint ticket of Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee and the pro-Beijing, pro-government force in the Legislative Council by-election. Pointing to her 42.9 per cent vote share during a self-appraisal, the former secretary for security proclaimed her success in smashing the so-called "60-40 rule" for Hong Kong's direct elections.

She was referring to the widely held, though not necessarily accurate, notion that democrats should expect about 60 per cent of the total vote share in a "one person, one vote" election. The remaining 40 per cent would go to pro-Beijing, pro-government candidates.

Mrs Ip argued that, in view of by-election winner Anson Chan Fang On-sang's popularity, and her previous senior position in government, the former chief secretary should have been expected to garner around 70 per cent of the vote. In the end, Mrs Chan won 54.8 per cent.

Yet, Ng Hong-mun, a veteran adviser to the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, expressed disappointment with the result. He concurred with analysts that the margin of Mrs Chan's victory was larger than had been expected.

The Chinese-language Apple Daily quoted him as saying that they had predicted Mrs Ip would lose by no more than 20,000 votes; the actual figure was about 38,000.

Detailed analysis of the distribution of votes in the various districts has shed more light on Mrs Ip's political comeback, and the strength of the pro-establishment force. She gained just 35 per cent of the votes, to Mrs Chan's 63 per cent, in the Chi Fu Fa Yuen constituency in Pok Fu Lam, a middle-class residential complex where she set up her first district office last year.

In the Kwun Lung constituency that saw a DAB vice-chairman win by an overwhelming 85 per cent of the votes in the district council elections, Mrs Chan beat Mrs Ip by six percentage points in the by-election.

Emboldened by its ringing success in the district council elections, the pro-Beijing camp seems to have had high expectations of giving the democrats a sound beating again. Admittedly, the pan-democratic force would have been thrown into disarray if Mrs Chan had lost Sunday's poll, or won by only a small margin.

From the DAB's perspective, the political gamble of giving its full support to Mrs Ip, in order for her to become a giant killer, proved to be wishful thinking.

Claims that Mrs Ip broke the "60-40 rule" are questionable. Analysts say the 60 per cent vote share for the democrats in 2004 represented their highest point, which was made possible because of the effects of the previous year's July 1 rally, when 500,000 people turned out to protest.

Given the two camps' by-election vote share, it can be argued that the political landscape has remained largely unchanged, with the pan-democratic camp leading by a clear margin on Hong Kong Island.

It is clear that Mrs Ip succeeded in securing new votes from the middle of the political spectrum, although the total number is not that impressive. Since she was practically representing the whole pro-establishment force, there is a big question mark over the size of her base of supporters who would vote for her should she run against rival candidates, including those from the DAB.

On a personal front, Mrs Ip had hoped to turn over a new leaf by shedding the negative image of being associated with the controversy about the proposed national security legislation. With hindsight, it is doubtful whether she chose the best battleground to settle the Article 23 dispute once and for all.

When the hot air over the by-election has subsided, both Mrs Ip and the pro-Beijing, pro-government camp will be left wondering what, exactly, they have gained.

The political fallout has begun to surface, nevertheless. Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing's broadside against Mrs Chan in Legco on Wednesday for being a "sudden democrat" and someone who "suddenly cares about people's livelihood" shows the price Mrs Chan will have to pay for a return to the centre of the political stage.

As the row unfolds, it says something about the potential strength of Mrs Chan in changing the dynamics of the political game.

Indeed, the sense of unease and embarrassment shown by DAB heavyweights Tsang Yok-sing and Lau Kong-wah, who flanked Mrs Chan, proved to be an ironic, and interesting, picture of the post-by-election political scene.

Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large. [email protected]

There is a worrying kind of brilliance in the way that Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee has managed to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the Legislative Council by-election.

Her anti-democrat alliance had been planning to claim the result as a "victory" for Mrs Ip if the vote were close. In these circumstances, Mrs Ip could have been portrayed as having come from behind to almost beat Anson Chan Fang On-sang. But the voters' verdict was far too clear for this claim to be credible.

This necessitated a rapid change of tack, and Mrs Ip has to be admired for having done it so adroitly by claiming that, in securing 42.9 per cent of the votes, she had broken the alleged "golden rule" of Hong Kong Island elections. The "rule" states that the pan-democrat camp is assured of 60 per cent of the popular vote, compared with 40 per cent for the pro-Beijing forces.

The claim is sheer nonsense, but it was regularly repeated as fact and even endorsed by a number of tame academics who evidently don't bother with research.

Maybe they failed to recall what had happened just two weeks earlier, when the pan-democrats only managed to win 29 per cent of the popular vote in the district council elections on Hong Kong Island.

In a 2000 by-election, the democrats won 52 per cent of the vote, improving on their performance in the wider election that same year, when they scored 49 per cent.

Only in 2004 did the pan-democrats manage to win 60 per cent of the Hong Kong Island popular vote. Mrs Ip should know that one election result does not make a "golden rule". Yet this is quickly slipping into local folklore as a given fact.

Were this an isolated incidence of Mrs Ip purveying false information, it could be overlooked as an aberration. However, she is building an impressive record for this kind of thing. In the run-up to the election, she gave an address to the Foreign Correspondents' Club in which she said, without blinking, that only half of Hong Kong's eligible electors had bothered to register. In fact, almost 70 per cent had done so; no genius is required to work out the inaccuracy of Mrs Ip's figure.

While the number of registered voters is steadily rising, the anti-democrats relish playing down voters' enthusiasm for elections, as indeed they also tend to cast doubt on the intelligence of Hong Kong people when it comes to anything related to representative government. The latter, however, is a matter of opinion and the former a matter of fact that Mrs Ip simply distorted.

She is most famous for her extraordinary claim that Hitler came to power through elections. I, and others, have written about this before and there is no need to again stress that it is an infamous distortion of history.

However, as Mrs Ip presumably regards herself as an expert on Nazi history, she is no doubt inspired by Hitler's propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels, who is notorious for saying that if you repeat a lie a thousand times, it becomes the truth.

This is hardly a comfortable antecedent for someone who declares that she is determined to enter the legislature and, indeed, has a reasonable chance of doing so in next year's election.

It may be argued that all politicians tend to be liberal with the truth and, so, an exquisite lower standard is required for their special use. However, Hong Kong has been fortunate in escaping the lower realms of mendacity that seem to prevail elsewhere. It would be a great pity if we were to lose this advantage, but this can only be avoided by constant vigilance.

Fact and opinion nestle uncomfortably together in the political arena, yet there is an area where quantifiable facts can be established. Mrs Ip seems to think this area is a no-go zone and is set on creating confusion where none is required. No doubt, the voters will remember this when she next contests an election.

Stephen Vines, a Hong Kong-based journalist and entrepreneur, is a member of the Civic Party

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Hong Kong Island by-election introduced a new breed of experienced candidates and will hasten change

The key event of the past seven days has obviously been the Hong Kong Island by-election campaign, which saw Anson Chan Fang On-sang in a head-to-head face-off with Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee.

For the whole of Hong Kong, this election probably marked a defining moment in the development of local politics. It was the first time previously high-profile government officials had stood for popular election, in marked contrast to the normal format which sees most direct elections contested by generally well-meaning, but largely incompetent, professionals.

At least the Legislative Council will now have one member who has spent an entire career in public policy formation, a person who should be able to question government policy from a truly authoritative stance in the future.

Although this by-election may mark the start of Hong Kong people being offered a choice of more experienced candidates in the future, as the precedent Chan and Ip have set may encourage others to follow them, the electorate is still very far from having credible political parties.

These women represented supposedly different ends of the political spectrum, with Anson Chan the candidate of a party that wants universal suffrage as quickly as possible and Regina Ip representing one which favors a more measured pace of reform.

However, when it comes to domestic policy matters, I am sure most individuals in Hong Kong have little idea as to how these two opposing parties differ in terms of the policies which affect our day-to-day lives.

If pan-democratic lawmakers have any common ground among their diverse members it is that they seem to lean toward a form of interventionist socialism.

Equally bizarre is the fact that Ip's party seems to specialize in calling out the working class to vote en masse, only for its representatives to support the maintenance of a patriarchal society run by a self-acclaimed elite.

How long the poorest in society can be convinced to vote for a party that supports the wealthiest, merely because it is a patriotic party, whatever that means, remains to be seen.

In the absence of any coherent party political ideology, it is inevitable that the next stage of Hong Kong's political development will involve individual personalities being elected on a standalone basis, irrespective of their party allegiances.

There is little doubt that, while the Hong Kong population is ready for universal suffrage, the development of the political institutions to harness this has been left far behind.

This is hardly surprising, given the former colonial power neglected political development for its own ends just as Beijing is now unsure of its political footing.

However, the Hong Kong by- election will hasten the process of change, as the acceptance of the legitimacy of the result of the ballot box by two worthy candidates was a vindication of the democratic system.

Indeed, both candidates seemed to have learned rather a lot during their election campaigns. They had to get out among the same people they claimed to represent when in high-powered, but unelected, civil servant roles.

Both Regina Ip and Anson Chan, who can live very comfortably off their large civil service pensions, which come with full medical benefits and the like, seem to have been genuinely humbled by having to get out and face real people with real problems.

Regina Ip has talked about how rewarding she found campaigning and how she realized the arrogance of government, while Anson Chan seemed to realize that there really are vast swaths of Hong Kong that are doomed to lives that are both materially and emotionally impoverished.

Although Anson Chan was elected, we are sure to see Regina Ip in the Legislative Chamber in the near future. Irrespective of which of these two candidates you personally prefer, in their own way both of them won.

They stood up to be judged by their peers and good luck to them both on that count alone.

However, let us also hope their recent experience of campaigning and previous roles within the the civil service will allow their respective parties to draw up original and coherent domestic policy initiatives in future.

Hong Kong people deserve nothing less. [email protected] Stephen Brown is a director of the

think-tank Civic Exchange

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