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Pan-democrats need time to lick their wounds and do some soul-searching

Parties are puzzling over the district council election results. Figuring out what they did right or wrong will be crucial in planning for the 2008 Legislative Council contest.

Pan-democrats generally took a pasting, so they want desperately to work out what led to their defeats. But the race to learn from the just-completed contests takes on added urgency since another election looms only days ahead.

The dust-up between Anson Chan Fang On-sang for the pan-democrats and Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee for the pro- government forces is a rehearsal for next September's Legco battles, not a rematch of the district council contests.

But getting supporters out to vote is one thing this by-election and the district council elections have in common.

While none of the parties has one of their own in the by-election, all the parties have chosen a champion. The pan- democrats crafted a special nominating process to deliver a consensus candidate. The DAB and Liberal Party employed the customary backroom bargaining.

But the parties know that turnout is everything in a by-election. This time, election fatigue and, for the pan- democrats, discouragement and post- election disarray and squabbling, make turning out the vote a real challenge.

The DAB did the better job of motivating supporters to go vote in council races, but the Civic Party proved surprisingly able to do the same. It got high vote totals even when it lost.

It was not a one-sided rout as might be expected for a new, inexperienced party of only a few hundred members.

On the other hand, the Association for Democracy and the People's Livelihood has been around for more than two decades, and while a small party too, it has a great deal of experience in district council elections and experienced members with long records of service in their neighborhoods. That Frederick Fung Kin-kee came so close to defeat has shaken the group badly.

The Democratic Party has many more members and a great deal of electioneering experience too. That it lost so heavily despite the advantages of incumbency, numbers and experience has forced a real rethink upon the party leaders. Like the ADPL, the Democrats are working hard to make sure they understand the message the voters sent. That message may not be what you think.

Despite lots of money, experienced members and being pro-government, the Liberal Party did not do well. So this election was not just a faceoff between well-funded pro-government parties and poor pan-democrats where resources mattered and the pro- democracy message did not take.

Being pro-democracy was not enough to win. But as the Liberal Party's performance proves, being pro- government was not enough either.

What made the difference?

The DAB has long argued that cooperation with Beijing benefits Hong Kong. Since 1997, it has asserted that cooperation and persuasion - not confrontation and argument - with the SAR government is the way to deliver what the voters want.

That message did not work well when the mainland took jobs and businesses away from Hong Kong during the early transition years, nor was it persuasive when Tung Chee-hwa piled bad decisions on top of already tough circumstances.

That mainland secrecy unleashed the devastating 2003 SARS epidemic on Hong Kong completely wrecked the DAB's ``go along with the mainland for prosperity and stability'' message.

But with an economy growing strongly, unemployment way down, and property values way up, all from China-linked prosperity and demand, DAB arguments looked much better. And a stock market exploding upward on the back of money pouring in from the mainland with the connivance if not the permission of mainland authorities is pretty persuasive that the DAB had the right idea that cooperation pays off.

The icing on the cake? Donald Tsang Yam- kuen's commitment to increase government-paid education up to 12 years - just as the DAB had asked. Liberals opposed that and lost.

With prosperity from China and three years' additional free schooling, the DAB made a persuasive case this time. But the economy and the stock market could be different by next September.

Pan-democrats should be talking now about how market and corporate governance reforms, competition laws, better not just more education, and a minimum wage protect us from harder times.

[email protected]

Michael DeGolyer is a professor of the government and international studies department at Hong Kong Baptist University

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THE 1999 turnout was about 816,000. The number of peoplewho voted at the District Council (DC) election this year is1.148 million, up about 40% on eight years ago. Did pro-democracycandidates get about as many per cent more votes? Some

pro-democracy legislators stood in this year's DC election. AndrewCheng got 10.7% more votes than he did in 1999, Albert Chan, 24% ,and Albert Ho, 27.9% (the most). They did better than others. However,Wong Yung-kun, who belongs to the DAB, obtained 33.4% more votesthan he did in 1999. Chan Ka-wai, a Democrat, managed to garner16.8% more votes in Whampoa East than he did in 1999, but he lost toPricilla Leung, a new comer.

When democrats looked back on their failures, many of themconsoled themselves by saying that, though they had lost, they hadobtained more votes. It is true that pro-democracy candidates receivedmore votes in the last two DC elections than they did in 1999.Otherwise, their defeats would have been even more devastating.However, even star pro-democracy politicians' percentage voteincreases are way below the percentage increase in voter turnout(about 40%). It is pointless to generalise from what has happened in afew constituencies to a few candidates. We agree that democrats wonmore votes than they did in 1999. But the DAB achieved a landslide.Its candidates must have won much more votes than democrats. In ourview, whether a candidate will win depends on how well he does districtwork.

Owing to the July 1 effect, democrats won many DC seats in the2003 election. However, they failed to build up their advantage. Forexample, Cyd Ho, who defeated Ip Kwok-him, did not plunge herselfinto district work. Resident who have problems would turn to IpKwok-him, who lost to Cyd Ho. That is quite ironic. This year, over 130pro-democracy DC members sought re-election. Twenty-three of themwere unseated. Presumably, many of them easily won their seats in1999 but did not cherish them. However, DAB candidates who had lostate humble pie and assiduously served their constituents. It is quiteclear what voters, seeing that, would choose to do. Becausepro-democracy groups neglected district work, though voter turnoutwas higher this year than in 1999, their candidates failed to achievesimilar percentage vote increases. That is why they were put to rout.

Canvassing is just an activity. A candidate who lacks support cannotget many votes, however hard he may try to mobilise voters.

Pro-democracy parties have lagged far behind in gaining popularsupport. That is a problem they must find ways to solve.Just because the pro-democracy camp was routed in the DCelection, it does not follow that the Democratic Party or any otherpro-democracy group will remain in eclipse forever. "It is common for asoldier to win or lose battles." The DAB was humiliated in 2003. In thepast four years, it strengthened itself, and its members immersedthemselves in hard work. They now feel proud and elated. Ifpro-democracy groups find out why they were routed, they can, in ourview, still fight DC elections.20 November 2007

The district council election results tell us that political parties which cannot "get out the vote" will not succeed. Let that be a warning, especially to those in the pro-democracy camp; they don't have much time to get their act together for next year's Legislative Council election. Despite the lacklustre atmosphere during the campaigning period, more people turned out to vote last Sunday than ever before. That is quite a feat. Voters were motivated to go to the ballot box.

The Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong did very well. The party got almost all its candidates elected. This shows that members planned well and knew where they could mobilise their voters. This is really what elections are about. A political party's success depends on being able to mobilise its supporters when it matters. A party that cannot get members elected won't get far in the long run.

The democrats frequently complain that they have fewer resources to connect with voters and use that as the reason for their poor electoral performance. Some pro-democracy politicians and parties have been standing for election since 1991 and many have long district work records. This amount of experience should have given them an advantage when it came to information about supporter profiles and details.

That information should have been compiled, updated, analysed and reanalysed with the aim of mobilising voters. Putting together this kind of supporter information doesn't necessarily cost a lot, but it does require an excellent record-keeping system. People have to be given the task of ensuring that each party member in a particular electoral district passes on constituency data so that the party has records. These can then be used for analysis, and to plan strategies and campaigns.

In other words, the party has to be totally dedicated to this important task. Data collection and analysis must rank as a top priority in every political party. Without good information, it is not possible to get out the vote when it truly matters.

New candidates, particularly those with no party affiliation, are obviously at a disadvantage. This is where having star quality helps. But, once elected, they too must start collecting supporter information, to help them get re-elected.

Newer parties, such as the Civic Party, and old ones that have only recently started to contest direct elections in earnest - such as the Liberal Party - must invest in collecting supporter data.

If, in all honesty, they have yet to devote attention and resources to this laborious task, they must do everything possible to rectify the problem; next year's Legco election will be make or break time.

It is no good giving the excuse that the DAB has unlimited resources and help from the traditional left-wing camp. Indeed, with such a well-organised competitor, other parties need to redouble their own efforts to catch up. Lamentation won't get them elected.

The star appeal of a few popular candidates isn't enough to increase the size of the party. Instead, the party must be organised, to get more candidates elected at each opportunity. The pro-democracy camp faces trouble in the battle for Legco seats next year because some of its longstanding members have lost much of their voter appeal.

While some of the newer faces are more appealing, they may have trouble attracting enough support to ensure a strong presence for the democrats in the legislature.

So, what should the pro-democracy camp do? It had better take a long, hard look at its supporter database and do whatever it can to improve the quality of the information. Party officials need evidence-based data to plan a strategy for the Legco election and to be imaginative about how to reach out to supporters. If they do not have people who can compile and use the data, they had better get them trained up very quickly.

Christine Loh Kung-wai is chief executive of the think-tank Civic Exchange

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We failed at the election, Democratic Party chairman Albert Ho Chun-yan said, of the district council election results.

Mr Ho said the party's major rival, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, had very strong connections in the districts and could mobilise a majority of supporters to cast their ballots.

I disagree with those comments. I did not vote for Mr Ho on Sunday, but I did vote for him in the previous election. I am a small potato, but I once put my trust in the Democrats, however, I will not do so again. It is not so much because of the DAB, it is simply that I am disappointed with the Democrats. I am concerned about the internal feuding that I see within the party. Remember the heated arguments when senior members in Mr Ho's group nominated Anson Chan Fang On-sang to stand in the forthcoming Legco by-election. By contrast, look at how DAB members reacted when its party chiefs nominated Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee.

Mr Ho's rival in Sunday's election in the Lok Tsui constituency, Tony Li Kam-man, is relatively new. Although he lost, he impressed me. For example, he had a leaflet introducing himself which showed bus routes and carried other useful information about our area. It was a very simple idea. It was not significant, it will not change the lives of Tuen Mun residents, but it made the right point.

What do residents in Tuen Mun care more about - political fights or solving transportation problems in the area?

Almost every day we heard about universal suffrage from the Democrats. I know this is an important issue, but do the Democrats not know how to prioritise? We don't just want slogans and high ideals. First and foremost, we want someone representing us who cares about the problems we, as residents, face every day.

Wake up, Mr Ho, the failure of the Democrats is not because of other groups, it is because there is something wrong with the party's mindset.

Alice Wong, Tuen Mun Copyright (c) 2007. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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