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In a sign of the normalisation of HK politics, voters brushed aside party ideology in the district polls, writes Stephen Vines

Sometimes the obvious is easy to overlook in the aftermath of elections. However, it is rather surprising that the real significance of last Sunday's district council elections has been so glibly ignored. Maybe this is because commentators are reluctant to draw what appear to be mundane lessons from an election result, yet there is nothing mundane about the fact that this poll marks the arrival of "normal" politics in Hong Kong.

The word "normal" is subjective, but there are a number of objective measures to judge normality in this context. First, voters decided, as they do in many places around the world, to overturn the stunning result of the preceding election. In 2003, the pan-democrats swept the board on the back of a campaign against an immensely unpopular government. This was an abnormal result. Now, the government is more popular and there is less discontent.

This brings us to the second "normal" aspect of this election: given a level playing field with no overwhelming single issue, the probability is that the largest and best organised political party will prevail. No one seriously doubts this title belongs to the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

However, organisational skills are only part of the story, and the DAB cannot win elections purely on the basis of its vote-gathering abilities. It also derives support from appearing to be credible and reliable.

However - and this is a little strange - it seems to garner support despite, not because of, its ideology or policies. On the one hand, the party stands against majority opinion on the issue of democracy; on the other, because of ever-closer ties to the government, it is moving away from its traditional association with workers' causes. Last, but not least, it is built on the foundations of the clandestine Communist Party in Hong Kong, which has never been popular. The party's sensitivity over its origins is seen by its extreme reluctance to even discuss this matter.

In theory, therefore, voters could be expected to shun the DAB. It is a sign of the normalisation of Hong Kong politics that voters brush aside ideological considerations in favour of image, personalities and, in the case of local elections, the performance of party representatives in office.

The pendulum will almost certainly swing against the DAB at some time, as it does to all parties in societies that enjoy free elections. Overexcited expectation always greets an election victory and today there is much talk of the democrats being a spent force. Much the same kind of nonsense was heard in 2003, when the DAB was described in these terms.

Some people who speak glibly about the failure of the democrats rush to conclude that this is synonymous with dwindling support for democratic ideals. However, they seem not to have noticed that other anti-democrat parties, notably the Liberals, also did badly. It therefore seems reasonable to conclude that this election marks the end of single-issue voting. Although there is a clear divide between democrats and their opponents, voters are not focusing on this alone.

So far, so normal. But even more "normal" is the resignation of Frederick Fung Kin-kee to take responsibility for the poor performance of the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood, together with Albert Ho Chun-yan's attempt to quit as leader of the Democratic Party, alongside the actual resignation of Lee Wing-tat as its election strategist.

These rapid resignations are in marked contrast to the extreme reluctance of government ministers to take responsibility for massive failures in their departments and the even more shameful attempts to pretend, once they finally step down, that this has nothing to do with their failures in office. The party officials, and this includes the DAB's Tsang Yok-sing - who resigned as head of the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong in the aftermath of the 2003 election - are demonstrating an honourable and appropriate response by leaders who believe that the buck stops somewhere.

Finally, and most amusingly, the results of this election have prompted some commentators to suggest that the way ahead for political parties is to become less political. This is a little like suggesting that the police would be more effective if they stopped arresting criminals on the grounds that it upsets them. The business of political parties is to promote ideas, formulate policies and provide leadership in the struggle to improve society - this is called politics, and not everyone can be expected to agree with these ideals. The notion that parties should abandon what might be described as a visionary role to be replaced by a vague concept of "pragmatism" is to suggest that Hong Kong should be operating in the shadow of a dim light bulb rather than the bright lights that it deserves.

Stephen Vines, a Hong Kong-based journalist and entrepreneur,is a member of the Civic Party

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Pan-democrats suffered some of their worst electoral setbacks on Sunday in districts with more mainland migrants recently granted permanent residency.

The parties' worst failure came in Kwun Tong, where they lost seven seats. It is one of five districts where more than 3 per cent of the population are mainlanders granted permanent residency in the past three years. The other districts were Yuen Long, Sham Shui Po, Kwai Tsing and Islands. It is not known what proportion of these permanent residents are adults and how many of those were registered to vote.

Six years ago mainlanders with recent permanent residency made up 1.5 per cent of potential voters, and were concentrated in two districts, Kowloon City and Yau Tsim Mong, said Lai Poh-chin, of the University of Hong Kong's geography department, who studied the impact of mainland voters on last weekend's polls.

Hong Kong Island and Tai Po remain the districts with the lowest proportion of mainland migrants among potential voters.

Professor Lai said democrats failed to hold on to seats in districts where the population of mainland migrants had risen.

"Four years ago, district council seats in Kwun Tong and Sham Shui Po were mostly taken by democrats," she said. "They enjoyed around 60 per cent of the vote. But that did not happen in Sunday's polls."

In Kwun Tong, pan-democrats won 10 seats four years ago, but only three seats on Sunday; in Yuen Long, pan-democrats won six seats four years ago but only two this year.

She said the "pro-government camp" had been building up its contacts with new arrivals from the mainland for the past year or two and this could have affected the choices of voters of mainland origin.

Meanwhile, independent candidates managed to capture more seats on Hong Kong Island, an outcome which could affect the outcome of the by-election there for a Legislative Council seat on December 2, Professor Lai said. Pan-democrats have said they are still confident their candidate, Anson Chan Fang On-sang, will win 60 per cent of the vote.

Professor Lai said how the voters who backed independents on Sunday cast their ballots in the by-election could have a big impact on its outcome.

She noted that some self-styled independent candidates in the district council elections were allied with political parties.

Still, she said by-election hopefuls should think hard about how to garner their votes.

Eight candidates are contesting the by-election, which was triggered by the death from cancer of Ma Lik, chairman of the Beijing-friendly Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

The DAB is supporting the candidacy of former security minister Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee.

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The pro-establishment political groups, led by the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, won a resounding victory in the district council elections, at the expense of the pan-democrats. Within the pro-democracy camp, the Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat, and the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood fared no better.

There are some important lessons to be learned from the elections for all political parties, politicians and the government. There was no debate in these elections. Without the "July 1" effect, the turnout rate was down from 44.1 per cent in 2003 to 38.83 per cent, but it was still higher than the 35.82 per cent in 1999. Furthermore, a record 1.14 million voters cast their ballots. This underlines the fact that Hong Kong people are not politically apathetic.

We are a very mature civil society. The results proved that the district polls were not only about political debate; livelihood issues loom larger in voters' considerations.

Four years ago, the pro-establishment parties were punished for the government's poor performance. People made their dissatisfaction known by voting for the opposition parties, but these votes did not necessarily represent support for the pro-democracy camp. There is a fundamental difference between supporting democracy and backing the pan-democrats. Some pan-democrats were elected on the back of widespread public dissatisfaction with the government. But those who did not serve their local communities well were deserted by the voters.

Democracy is about checks and balances. In 2003, when public anger was at its peak, the opposition enjoyed a good spell. Four years on, the economy has fully recovered and the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9 per cent. There is also a new government. Though people do not necessarily support its policies, they may not wish to punish it by voting for opposition parties. Under such circumstances, the pan-democrats had no chance with their monotonous agenda.

Since the handover, society has changed beyond recognition. Political parties will be consigned to the waste bin if they only repeat their past formulas for success. Hong Kong's problems are all very complicated, be it the economy, housing, health care, education, the environment, welfare, family crises or the ageing population. They all call for new thinking and innovative solutions.

Democratic Party strategist Lee Wing-tat tried to blame their failure on insufficient resources, saying that their opponents could finance a strong network to canvass votes. This is nothing new. Their opponents have always enjoyed the advantage of having more financial resources to hand. Furthermore, this gap will remain, even after the introduction of universal suffrage; the Democratic Party will have to face a similar challenge then. Not only did the Democrats fail to motivate voters with their lifeless political platform, they also failed miserably on livelihood issues. Their defeat was inevitable, because they fielded an amateur team to face the DAB's professionally run political machine.

The Democratic Party has neglected its youth league. The so-called second-tier leaders are all men in their 40s. Voters are sick and tired of the same old faces in politics. Part of the DAB's winning formula was its courage to field young candidates. Half of the young candidates below the age of 30, from both the DAB and the Democratic Party, were elected, suggesting that voters were yearning for change and new faces. In view of this, legislators should no longer take part in district elections, in order to give the younger generation more opportunity to grow.

History is full of ironies. Four years ago, campaigning centred on kicking out the pro-establishment parties. The result was that almost all the candidates with a "democracy" label were elected. This year, the so-called "opposition parties" were chased out by their pro-establishment rivals. The tide of public sentiment has turned. The pan-democrats have no choice but to adapt to the new landscape and start nurturing a new generation of politicians.

Albert Cheng King-hon is a directly elected legislator

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