Our series on the Legco geographical constituencies continues, with Eva Wu looking at the battle in Kowloon East where pro-democracy and Beijing-friendly forces are expected to grab two seats each next month

In the 2004 elections, pan-democrats defeated Beijing loyalists by three seats to two, when the seats returned in the constituency were increased from four to five. This year, the number is back to four, with four incumbent lawmakers seeking re-election in the constituency.

The fifth, former radio host Albert Cheng King-hon, who ran with Andrew To Kwan-hang in 2004, drops out of the race this year.

With one seat less than in the previous election, academics say the situation in Kowloon East is much clearer than in other geographical constituencies, adding that the four seats are highly likely be shared equally by the two camps.

There is no obvious change in electors' preferences from the past elections. The election result in the district is more easy to predict, City University political scientist James Sung Lap-kung said.

In the past two Legco elections, the Beijing-friendly camp enjoyed nearly the same number of votes - 108,587 votes in 2000 and 107,864 in 2004. With an extra seat up for grabs in 2004, the number of votes for the pro-democracy camp increased from 103,863 in 2000 to 186,116.

Ivan Choy Chi-keung, a political scientist at Chinese University, said the only variable in the election, and an unlikely one, was whether incumbent lawmaker Chan Yuen-han could win a seat from second place on a ticket.

For the first time, and alone among the incumbents, the veteran Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions lawmaker is not leading a ticket. She is ranked second after FTU chairman Wong Kwok-kin, who is making his first attempt in a direct election.

Professor Sung predicted that Mr Wong and incumbent Chan Kam-lam, of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, would win the two seats for the Beijing-friendly camp, meaning Ms Chan would miss out.

Civic Party candidate Alan Leong Kah-kit, who ran as an independent in the previous election, said the entire picture might change if the same number of electors supporting the democratic camp voted again next month.

Candidates who can win Mr Cheng's votes may be able to grab a seat. It is possible for Ms Chan to do that, Mr Leong said.

This year, there are 17 candidates running on six lists, up from five in the previous election.

The Democratic Party's district councillor, Wu Chi-wai, who ran after incumbent lawmaker Fred Li Wah-ming in the previous election, leads a separate ticket in next month's poll. Mr To, a running-mate of Mr Cheng in 2004, is standing for the League of Social Democrats. Copyright (c) 2008. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Pan-democrat accountant Mandy Tam Heung-man was accused at a forum last night of failing to maintain communications with the central government.

But Ms Tam, who faces a challenge in the accountancy sector from a Beijing-loyalist candidate, said a lawmaker's main job was supervising the Hong Kong government, not necessarily communicating with Beijing.

The exchange came at a forum organised by the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants, with which Ms Tam has had a thorny relationship since winning election as an independent in 2004.

In a written question, one member asked Ms Tam, a founding member of the Civic Party, whether she thought communicating with Beijing was important, and what weight she placed on party affiliation.

Your failure to maintain communications with China over the past four years gave rise to misunderstandings that our sector is against China. Young accountants are asked to explain their stance when they work on the mainland, the member said.

Ms Tam said a lawmaker's major duty was to supervise the government.

Whether or not I maintain good relations [with the central government] does not affect our accountants' job opportunities on the mainland. The door is always open. I welcome communicating with people from all sectors, she said.

Of the five contenders in the constituency, Ms Tam is the only one with political affiliations and has been criticised for not seeking opinions from the sector before joining the party.

Joining a party is not a burden, she said yesterday. Its provision of deep resources enables me to better supervise the government.

Asked if he would consult the sector before joining any political parties, her rival, Paul Chan Mo-po, who is backed by the Beijing-loyalist camp, said: I shall remain as an independent candidate.

Mr Chan said he carried no burden from political parties and thus could compromise easily with other sectors.

Ms Tam accused another of her opponents, Ronald Kung Yiu-fai, of adopting an unstable political stance after he stood as a pan-democrat candidate in the 2004 Legislative Council election and then joined Mr Chan's team for the Election Committee sub-sector elections in 2006.

Mr Kung, who is seen as a threat to Ms Tam because of his appeal to younger accountants, replied that short-term combination does not relate to any political ideas.

The other candidates are district councillor Wong Wang-tai and Francis Yim Ting-wai.

Copyright (c) 2008. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Photographs of DAB candidates with leading government officials have been posted on the party's election website.

But the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong denied that such an act required consent.

Most of the photographs depict Ip Kwok-him, a vice-chairman of the party and its candidate for the district councils functional constituency. He is seen with top ministers, including Chief Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen, constitutional affairs chief Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah.

In another photograph, Mr Ip is seen with Norman Chan Tak-lam, director of the Chief Executive's Office, at a party function.

However, the photographs in which ministers are shown amid party backdrops, including cutting cakes at an anniversary celebration, have since been removed.

But a photograph showing Mr Ip handing Mr Tang a petition letter remains on the site.

The election guidelines state "a candidate must obtain prior written consent from a person {hellip} before using a pictorial representation of that person in any of his election advertisements or activities as an indication of support from that person or organisation".

The guidelines state that it is not uncommon for candidates to publish photographs to show past activities, and that to prevent the possibility of misleading the public into thinking the other people in the pictures were supporters, the caption should explain the nature of event.

"If the photograph is likely to cause electors to believe that the candidate has the support of the other people appearing in the photograph, it is advisable that prior written consent of support should be obtained by the candidate," the guidelines state.

Mr Ip said the photographs were removed because the site was being refreshed with new material, adding that the photographs did not indicate the officials' support.

City University political analyst James Sung Lap-kung said the pictures put the party at "high risk" of violating the guidelines, as they appeared to reflect officials' support for the DAB, rather than just represent what it had done for the public.

Spokesmen for all the ministers involved said they had not given consent for their photographs to be used in election advertisements as an indication of support.

Mr Ip said: "Once you see the photos, you can tell that they are not trying to say the official is supporting you. It's just representing what took place when you participated in a certain event.

"In a lot of our district activities, there is bound to be some official in the background. If we only publish photographs of ourselves, then it's meaningless."

Photographs on Civic Party election websites are generally restricted to images of the candidates taking part in campaign activities.

Party leader Audrey Eu Yuet-mee said: "We always take these things [the signing of consent forms] very seriously. We are a party that respects the rule of law and systems."

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Lawmakers Choy So-yuk of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and Democrat Yeung Sum will lose their Hong Kong Island seats in next month's election, according to a poll co-sponsored by the South China Morning Post.

And independent democrat and unionist Lau Chin-shek will lose in the Kowloon West dogfight. His seat will be taken by the Civic Party's Claudia Mo Man-ching.

The survey by the University of Hong Kong's public opinion programme projected that Ms Choy's list, headed by Tsang Yok-sing, would receive only 13.1 per cent of the vote.

Under the proportional representation system, the first candidate on any list contesting the six-seat constituency must get 16.7 per cent of the vote to be assured of a win. The votes grabbed by the DAB ticket in the survey would only be enough to send Mr Tsang to the Legislative Council.

Other winners would be Tanya Chan of the Civic Party (with 30.5 per cent of the vote), Kam Nai-wai of the Democratic Party (13.3 per cent) and Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee (25.9 per cent). The projections were based on the voting intentions of 202 respondents in the constituency. There were sampling errors up to 5 percentage points for some tickets.

The remaining two seats would go to Ms Chan's running mate, Audrey Eu Yuet-mee, and Louis Shih Tai-cho, who is second on Mrs Ip's list.

In Kowloon West, the poll found that only 8.2 per cent of the 173 prospective voters supported Mr Lau, not enough for him to keep his seat. The winning threshold in the five-seat constituency is 20 per cent.

Those set to win are Frederick Fung Kin-kee of the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (19.6 per cent), Democrat James To Kun-sun (19.2 per cent), Claudia Mo Man-ching of the Civic Party (17.5 per cent), Liberal Michael Tien Puk-sun (10.3 per cent), and Starry Lee Wai-king of the DAB (9.3 per cent).

In Kowloon East, Chan Yuen-han will not be returning to Legco as the 25 per cent support given to the Federation of Trade Unions candidates by the 168 prospective voters would ensure a seat only for the lead candidate on her list, Wong Kwok-kin.

Other winners are predicted to be Alan Leong Kah-kit of the Civic Party(28.3 per cent), Chan Kam-lam of the DAB (20.1 per cent), and Democrat Fred Li Wah-ming (16.3 per cent).

In the two most hotly contested, eight-seat constituencies of New Territories West and East, the existing political balance remains unchanged with incumbents all able to keep their seats, according to the poll.

Two functional constituency lawmakers switching to directly elected seats in New Territories West, Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung and Wong Kwok-hing, may fail to win a seat.

Gary Chan Hak-kan, second on the DAB's New Territories East list, will take the seat of Li Kwok-ying, who is not contesting the election.

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