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From initial observations of the Legislative Council election campaigns, two interesting features have become apparent. The first is the huge gap between expectations and end results. On the face of it, this election is fiercely competitive.

Even some seats in the functional constituencies are being hotly contested. Of the 30 seats, only 13 have just one nomination. For the other 17, there are 47 nominations in total. In the geographical constituencies, there are 55 lists of nominations, competing for the 30 seats, compared with 35 lists in 2004. The biggest bloodbath will take place in Kowloon West, where 14 lists with 34 candidates are competing for five seats.

Many attribute this to the breakdown of negotiations within the different camps. Yet, this seemingly convincing argument cannot adequately explain what is taking place in the functional constituencies. But if we factor in that 33 of the existing lawmakers have been in Legco for more than 10 years, we can appreciate that change is in the air. An increasing number of voters want to see more new faces, and some aspiring politicians just cannot wait to fill that apparent need. The breakdown of negotiations across the board is the result of an emerging trend: the general collapse of the existing political order. This trend is expected to persist until at least 2012.

It has to, because the results of this election are very predictable; we will not see as many new faces as we would like in the next session of Legco. The advantage of being the incumbent, together with the proportional representation system, have more or less determined that change can only be gradual. The needs of the voters and of the younger generation of politicians will not be satisfied, leading to a bloodier battle in 2012.

Never underestimate the staying power of the baby boomers. The succession process can only be accomplished in 2016, on the eve of universal suffrage in 2020. By then, another generation of politicians will have come of age and be fighting their way into the political arena.

The second observation is that the results will be a win-win situation. As the outcome of the election is predictable, and changes will be gradual, the current 35 seat to 25 seat balance between the pro-establishment and pan-democratic camps will change by three seats at most.

In short, there is no way the pro-establishment camp can gain a two-thirds majority, which is needed for any major legislation - not least that which relates to constitutional development towards universal suffrage - to be pushed through. The old balance will not be upset. With this in mind, both political blocs are taking it rather easy. This also explains why the campaigns are so boring.

The atmosphere is, generally, rather favourable to the pro-establishment camp, and its members are looking forward to gaining a few more seats. On the other hand, the pan-democrats are now busy redefining their version of victory. If their candidates can, together, maintain the magic overall 60 per cent to 40 per cent voter ratio in their favour in the geographical elections - give or take 5 percentage points - they can still claim victory. For the pro-democracy camp, it is not the number of seats that counts but the total number of votes relative to their opponents. Given that strategy, the more lists of candidates, the better.

If this strategy is going to make the democrats feel better after September 7, then they have my best wishes. But, if they all buy into this mindset, I am sure that defeat will be even more unbearable should the margin between themselves and the pro-establishment camp turn out to be closer than they desire. As for most Hong Kong citizens, they just want to maintain some sort of political balance to ensure that the government is working in their best interests.

Lau Nai-keung is a member of the Basic Law Committee of the NPC Standing Committee, and also a member of the Commission on Strategic Development

Copyright (c) 2008. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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DAB candidates contesting the Legislative Council election in New Territories East received a threatening letter yesterday - the second targeting the Beijing-loyalist camp in two weeks.

Lau Kong-wah, a vice-chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, who leads the party's slate of seven candidates in the constituency, received the letter. An aide called the police.

Gary Chan Hak-kan, second to Mr Lau on the slate, said the letter threatened the lives of the party's candidates if they continued to contest the constituency. The letter contains many Chinese words in red meaning `kill'. I hope the police will take the case seriously, as this is the second letter within a short time.

Mr Lau would not comment on motives or say whether the party had become a target of election violence.

On July 26, Choy So-yuk, who is standing for re-election on Hong Kong Island, received a threatening letter containing 44 words in Chinese meaning kill.

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In the last of our series on Legco's geographical constituencies, Albert Wong looks at New Territories East

Six of the seven incumbents are running for re-election and there are only 10 slates of candidates contesting the constituency, but a split in the pro-government ranks has opened up the field in New Territories East.

Competition for the pro-establishment vote has become fiercer after simmering discontent between the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and rural leaders of the Heung Yee Kuk boiled over.

The split in the camp may benefit pan-democrats.

During a meeting of the kuk last month, Brian Kan Ping-chee lambasted the DAB for forcing the kuk leader, Lau Wong-fat, to vacate the district councils functional constituency seat to make way for the DAB's Ip Kwok-him.

Mr Kan's son, Terry Kan Wing-fai, was present that day and is running second on the Liberal Party list behind party chairman James Tien Pei-chun. He could benefit if rural voters defect from the DAB to the Liberal Party.

Initial polls indicate Gary Chan Hak-kan, second on the DAB list, is most likely to secure the final seat. However, Terry Kan says opinion polls often fail to reflect the views of village voters. I'm confident I can secure quite a substantial faction of the rural votes. I've been doing the work on the ground, with the voters, rather than playing gimmicks through the media, he said.

Mr Chan is intensively courting the young in the constituency, which has the highest percentage of voters under 30 years old - 18.6 per cent. You can really tell that when young people see my fliers, they are genuinely interested and want to discover more about my platform.

Mr Chan played down the impact of the row with rural leaders, pointing out that third on the DAB list is another prominent rural figure, Mok Kam-kwai.

The DAB's Lau Kong-wah, the Civic Party's Ronny Tong Ka-wah, and Democrat Andrew Cheng Kar-foo are tipped to take the first three seats, followed by Mr Tien and The Frontier's Emily Lau Wai-hing.

Waiting in the wings are several pan-democrats who may not obtain the 14.1 per cent of votes needed to win a seat automatically but could sneak through when remaining seats are allocated to candidates with the next highest numbers of votes. Tsang Kwok-fung, second on the Civic Party's list, the Democratic Party's Wong Sing-chi and Long Hair Leung Kwok-hung of the League of Social Democrats and April Fifth Action are in the running for such seats.

The Civic Party's drive to return a second candidate has undoubtedly upset Mr Leung, who now feels at risk of a shock exit from Legco. I wish Mr Tsang a good career. I hope he still sleeps well at night, he said.

Lingnan University political analyst Li Pang-kwong said the contest was very close. I wouldn't place my bets on anyone apart from the top three.

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