With younger candidates emerging, and fierce rivalries within each camp, the Legco election will reveal a transformed political landscape, writes Chris Yeung

Elected as a legislator since 1991, unionist lawmaker Lau Chin-shek was in a relaxed mood as he braced for his toughest re-election challenge in the upcoming Legislative Council election.

Never mind that his victory is far from certain if opinion polls are accurate, he has stuck to his plan to refrain from election gimmicks and from issuing "critical situation" calls among voters in Kowloon West, at least for now.

"I'm still convinced I have a unique role to play in bridging the political divide in society between the pan-democratic force and the pro-Beijing, pro-government camp," he said.

"People get fed up with incessant political bickering. I'm hoping I will be able to find new voters, who will come out and vote for me," he said, an admission perhaps that he fears his long-time supporters may desert him come polling day.

Long popular for championing democratic and labour rights, Mr Lau's declining political fortunes speak volumes about the changes in the political scene since the handover, and especially in the past few years.

Polls conducted in recent weeks show Mr Lau locked in a tight race with several strong contenders in Kowloon West, where five seats are up for grabs.

Of the five, three appear already locked up, with the likely winners being James To Kun-sun of the Democratic Party, Frederick Fung Kin-kee of the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) and Starry Lee Wai-king from the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB).

The remaining two seats are tipped to be fiercely contested between Mr Lau, Michael Tien Puk-sun of the Liberal Party, Claudia Mo Man-ching of the Civic Party, Wong Yuk-man of the League of Social Democrats (LSD) and Priscilla Leung Mei-fun, a self-proclaimed independent whom opponents have labelled a "hidden pro-Beijing candidate".

Another candidate, seen as an also-ran, is James Lung Wai-man, who is running under the Southern Democratic Alliance banner.

Described as the fiercest direct election battlefield in the September 7 poll, the fight for votes in Kowloon West is illustrative of the intricate conflicts and contradictions in the political landscape. How it plays out will not only affect the makeup of the next Legco but shed some light on public sentiment towards the government and the overall political environment.

Even though many results are predictable in view of the proportional representation election system for the geographical seats, analysts say the only certainty for the remaining seats is uncertainty because of the intense party infighting.

With that, it will come as no surprise if incumbents and veteran politicians like Lau Chin-shek, Emily Lau Wai-hing of the Frontier in New Territories East, Lee Wing-tat, the former Democratic Party chairman, in New Territories West and the DAB's Choy So-yuk in Hong Kong Island all lose their bids for re-election.

The fight for survival by several veterans, plus the retirements of political stars like Martin Lee Chu-ming and Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai, have given a sense of generational change to Hong Kong's electoral politics.

Major parties such as the Civic Party, the Democrats and the DAB are putting young contenders high on their lists of candidates.

Another intriguing development has occurred within the pro-establishment camp, where the rivalries among major players like the DAB, the Liberal Party and the Heung Yee Kuk have been the fiercest experienced in the short history of local elections.

Chinese University political scientist Ma Ngok attributes the enthusiastic participation of candidates from various political factions to the fact that the political atmosphere has been significantly moderated since the last Legco poll in 2004.

With the effect of the 500,000-strong march on July 1, 2003, still making an impact on the political mood of the populace, relations between the pan-democratic and pro-government camps at the 2004 election were tense.

The pan-democrats had raised their target to 31 seats in the hope of gaining control of the 60-member legislature. The pro-Beijing, pro-government side, meanwhile, was desperate to secure a comfortable majority.

Imbued with a sense of crisis over the post-July 1 political scene, the pro-establishment force had become more united in co-ordinating an election strategy, Professor Ma said. Now that the pan-democrats are in a much weaker state, he said, the pro-establishment force was more ambitious and aggressive.

"More people from the pro-establishment camp are tempted to join the fray as they believe they stand a reasonable chance now that the democrats are in bad shape. Once they have started their campaign, it is quite difficult to persuade them to pull out," said Professor Ma. A pro-Beijing figure, who preferred anonymity, said the conventional wisdom about the tussle between pro-democratic and pro-establishment forces could no longer fully explain the 2008 election political scene.

"Legco elections have become the scene of numerous street battles. All kinds of political forces have fought hard to try to have their own power base," the source said.

"The emergence of power politics is a natural consequence following the resignation of Tung Chee-hwa and the elevation of Donald Tsang Yam-kuen.

"We are in a situation where there is no authority. Neither Beijing nor Mr Tsang are able to act as an authority in commanding the situation.

"Yes, they have been able to lure more like-minded candidates to the contest and will help canvas votes for them. But they won't be able to dissuade various aspirants in their own camp from running. Political interests within the two major camps have become more diverse and factionalised," he said.

Lo Chi-kin, a founding member of the Democratic Party, said the split within the pan-democratic camp was more severe than that in the pro-establishment force.

In view of the nature and structure of the pan-democratic camp, he said it was natural for there to be more factions among the democrats, making it harder for them to compromise on election strategy.

"There are only about three to four groupings within the pro-establishment camp including the DAB, Liberal Party and Heung Yee Kuk. The pan-democrats are in a free-for-all situation."

Dr Lo cited as an example LSD member Tsang Kin-shing, competing with Lo Wing-lok, a founder member of the party who quit this year, in Hong Kong Island.

The Democrats faced a similar dilemma. A veteran district councilor, Lai Chi-keong, quit the party to run as an independent in Hong Kong Island.

Lo Chi-kin said fierce competition for geographical constituency seats would enliven the political scene and give a boost to the turnout rate.

The severe infighting among the democrats meant it would be quite difficult to predict the results of the final couple of seats in each geographical constituency, he said.

"The margin of difference over the total number of seats between the pan-democratic and pro-government camps in the new Legco is likely to be small," Dr Lo said. "It will be more interesting and far more important to see whether there are major changes in the total vote share between the two rival camps."

Conventional wisdom has it that the pan-democratic forces have garnered roughly 60 per cent of the votes in previous geographical constituency elections, with the remaining 40 per cent going to the pro-establishment camp.

"There are changes in circumstances in each direct election. Previously, for instance, the Liberal Party had not fully participated in geographical constituency polls. In many senses, this year's election will be more normal when compared to 1998 and 2004," Dr Lo said.

With the universal suffrage issue becoming marginalised and public grievances towards the government less intense than in 2004, Professor Ma said livelihood issues had dominated this year's campaign, as was the case in 2000.

He said recent political controversies such as the Leung Chin-man case, where the former housing chief went to work for a property developer, would have only a slight impact on the election. The DAB stood to benefit if voters saw livelihood improvement as a key issue candidates should address in this election, Professor Ma added.

"The mobilisation power and election campaigning of the DAB have become more mature. With so many resources given to the DAB, they are likely to go from strength to strength in a direct election.

"It will be difficult for the pan-democrats to maintain over 60 per cent of the share of the votes in the direct elections in the long run as the political scene returns to normal.

"The gap between the votes for the pan-democratic camp and the pro-establishment camp will be shortened," he said.

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Despite the row triggered by her approval of a former housing and lands chief's job with a big developer, no one is calling for the resignation of civil service minister Denise Yue Chung-yee.

Politicians said that for the government the damage had already been done. The focus should be on reviewing the system of approving senior officials' post-retirement jobs.

A political scientist said the parties might be going easy on Miss Yue because they were afraid of losing the votes of civil servants in next month's Legislative Council election.

The minister yesterday made public her report, ordered by Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, into how Leung Chin-man's job with New World China Land came to be approved. Early today, the company announced Mr Leung had agreed to quit the post.

Mr Leung, 62, who retired from the government only in January last year, had headed the buildings and housing departments. He was also caught up in controversy over a bonus land grant to Henderson Land for its Grand Promenade development in Sai Wan Ho, which allowed it to earn an extra HK$3.2 billion and cost the government HK$115 million.

The Audit Commission criticised Mr Leung's role in the deal and a Legislative Council committee censured him, but an independent inquiry drew opposite conclusions.

At a news conference yesterday, Miss Yue apologised for the public concern her approval of Mr Leung's job had caused.

Asked whether she would resign to take responsibility for the furore, Miss Yue said she was a person of integrity, that she loved her work very much and that she hoped to continue in the position.

A government source said Mr Tsang had great respect for Miss Yue and "there exists no question of dropping her in order to safeguard" his own popularity.

Speaking before New World's announcement, Democratic Party legislator Lee Wing-tat, who has been one of the fiercest critics of the handling of Mr Leung's new job, said his party would continue to push for a judicial review and the setting up of a Legco select committee to investigate the matter.

"We have not demanded Denise Yue resign, although it is clear that the government has considered the public stupid. Donald Tsang cannot duck responsibility," he said.

Liberal Party leader James Tien Pei-chun said he was disappointed with Miss Yue's decision to approve Mr Leung's new job, "but the fault was not so serious as to warrant her resignation".

Civic Party leader Audrey Eu Yuet-mee said the affair had shown "officials never view things from the public's interest". Also speaking before Mr Leung quit, Emily Lau Wai-hing of The Frontier said Miss Yue should "make good her faults" and make a new decision on his future that the public could accept.

Both former chief secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang and former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee welcomed the review of the approval.

Mrs Chan said civil servants charged with collecting information in support of the approval might have failed in their duties.

Former civil service minister Joseph Wong Wing-ping said there was a need for the government to review its mechanism for approving post-retirement work by senior officials.

Chinese University academic Ivan Choy Chi-keung said that apart from the fact that Miss Yue was a veteran and well-respected civil servant, political parties might have refrained from demanding her resignation because they were anxious not to alienate civil servants voting in next month's Legco election.

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