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A row is looming over the release of exit poll results before the close of voting in Sunday's Legislative Council election, despite pollster Robert Chung Ting-yiu's assertion that his survey for broadcasters will be leak-proof.

Dr Chung's public opinion programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct the biggest exit poll.

Pan-democratic groups will hold a joint news conference today to remind voters they can refuse to talk to exit pollsters.

The Electoral Affairs Commission said it had received seven applications to conduct exit polls.

Democratic Party vice-chairman Sin Chung-kai said the fairness of the election could be undermined if certain people obtained exit poll data while others did not.

Independent Anson Chan Fang On-sang, who is not seeking re-election, said: "Voters had better ignore all exit poll interviews. Do not believe rumours which cite exit poll results saying whoever is in a critical situation."

At the last election, a "situation critical" message diverted votes to Democrat Martin Lee Chu-ming and cost fellow pan-democrat Cyd Ho Sau-lan re-election.

Mr Sin and Mrs Chan criticised the Electoral Affairs Commission for failing to amend guidelines to prevent the abuse of exit polls.

Tam Yiu-chung, chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, also expressed fears that poll data could be leaked.

Responding to candidates' concerns that leaks could affect the election results, Dr Chung insisted the scenario was unlikely. He has been carrying out exit polls since 1991, and said there had never been a leak of data from within media organisations sponsoring the polls.

He said the pan-democrats' stance was worrying and would make polling unprofessional.

Five broadcasters are sponsoring the POP exit polls on Sunday. This year, for the first time, they will be told at 12.30pm, 5pm and 9.30pm which candidates have more chance of being elected and which have less chance. Only after voting ends at 10.30pm will they get figures for each candidate's support.

Peter Kwan Wai, senior vice-president for news and public affairs at ATV, one of the sponsors, said it had not requested the pollster make new arrangements. "When we joined the project this year, we just thought the results would be provided to us at night like in past elections," he said.

Asked if the contracts signed with sponsors required them not to disclose findings to candidates, Dr Chung said: "We keep reminding them to study carefully the election rules."

The Electoral Affairs Commission reminded the media and any organisations conducting exit polls that they should not announce the results before the close of polling since that might affect results.

Spokesmen for RTHK, Cable TV, ATV and Now TV said they would comply with election guidelines and would not release any data from the exit polls until after voting ends.

Spokesmen for TVB could not be reached for comment by last night.

The public opinion programme's interviewers will collect information from electors at 120 polling stations.

Observer A16

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Fierce infighting among the pan-democratic candidates in the Legislative Council election was inevitable after the nomination period closed. But few people anticipated that the jockeying for seats could turn ugly and become potentially damaging to the whole camp as the campaign heated up.

As in previous polls, there were clashes between democrats and government allies in election forums.

Yet the war of words among pro-democracy candidates has proved much more bitter than anticipated. While spicing up the race, it has created an air of uncertainty over the election results.

In Kowloon East, scathing attacks by Andrew To Kwan-hang, of the League of Social Democrats, against the Democratic Party and the Civic Party have prompted candidates from those two parties to call on Mr To not to fire salvos at the wrong targets.

Mr To has accused the Democrats of wrongly backing the government's move to privatise the Link Reit investment trust, thus paving the way for hefty rent rises in public housing commercial and parking facilities. In Kowloon West, League of Social Democrats chairman Wong Yuk-man has lambasted the Civic Party's Claudia Mo Man-ching in the same way he did the candidates from the pro-Beijing, pro-government flagship party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

Mr Wong accused the Civic Party of applying double standards in its fight for democracy, and being elitist.

The tirades from the League of Social Democrats, a radical wing in the pan-democratic force, have apparently taken their toll on the two other major democratic parties, in particular the Civic Party's candidates.

Results of roving polls conducted by the University of Hong Kong's public opinion programme show a steady rise in Mr Wong's popularity and a fall in Ms Mo's vote share. Civic Party candidates contesting the Kowloon East and Hong Kong Island geographical constituencies have also seen a decline in support.

With the number of geographical constituency seats capped at 30, out of a total of 60 in the legislature, there is limited room for political parties, particularly newly formed groups such as the League of Social Democrats, to win seats.

With little chance of getting votes from the pool of supporters for the pro-establishment candidates, it is understandable why the League of Social Democrats has targeted pro-democracy voters.

True, the league, the Democrats and the Civic Party are sharply divided over questions like whether they should participate in the functional constituency elections.

With polls showing it is still behind the frontrunners, the league has few alternatives but to sharpen its attacks on the two other democratic parties.

Doing so might help grab enough votes in the marginal seats in hotly contested constituencies, such as Kowloon West and Kowloon East.

This election aside, the scramble also reflects the fact that no single political issue, such as democracy or the Beijing fear factor, has stood out in the election campaign. In the past, such issues have provided an easy target for the democrats to snatch votes from their pro-Beijing, pro-government rivals.

With or without the candidacies of non-mainstream democrats, the pan-democratic camp will remain divided. To agree to disagree is part and parcel of a free and democratic society. But democrats risk losing it all if voters find they are not offering better policies in the overall interests of society, but are merely after the seats out of their own self-interest.

Excessive infighting and smear tactics will harm the whole pro-democracy force and dampen the enthusiasm of voters when they cast their ballots on Sunday.

Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large. [email protected]

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Hong Kong's political parties have been making good use of the internet - they have resorted to Facebook, MSN and YouTube to promote their candidates in the upcoming Legislative Council elections.

All political parties and individual candidates created campaign websites, and have taken advantage of any means possible to use the power of the internet to connect with voters in their daily lives.

In one of the more innovative tactics, the Civic Party created a set of MSN icons for Tanya Chan Suk-chong.

People chatting on MSN can use those emoticons.

The move has also inspired copy-cat campaigners to do the same.

"The idea came from our young volunteers, and I think it has been a good way of introducing me to more people," said Ms Chan.

"We should try any creative way to promote ourselves, as long as it presents our image and core values accurately, and is not just a gimmick."

Given the huge popularity of social networking sites, it's no surprise political parties have set up their own groups in Facebook and are inviting their Facebook friends to events.

But probably the most fun addition to this year's Legco election has been the creative promotional videos and songs that have been doing the rounds on the internet.

Some were funny, such as the Democratic Party's video the MTR refused to show, while others featured strong storylines - an example being the Civic Party's Albert Lai Kwong-tak video.

Rap songs were another campaign highlight, with offerings from the Civic Party, Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, and even Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee. Some parties promoted themselves with online games, making Sunday's ballot probably the most innovative in Hong Kong's political history.

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With the election coming up this weekend, Peter So examines how intra-camp rivalries may affect the outcome in Kowloon East

It has been widely expected that the four seats in Kowloon East will be shared 50-50 by pan-democrats and Beijing loyalists in Sunday's Legislative Council election, but clashes among pan-democrats and an unpredictable number of leftist voters invisible to opinion polls add uncertainty to the outcome.

Opinion surveys by the University of Hong Kong, Chinese University and Lingnan University have all shown Civic Party candidate Alan Leong Kah-kit, Wong Kwok-kin of the Federation of Trade Unions, Chan Kam-lam of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, and the Democratic Party's Fred Li Wah-ming are likely to win seats by significant margins.

But the latest HKU survey showed support for incumbent Mr Li at 15.5 per cent, a drop from 25 per cent in a poll two weeks ago, still enough to position him for a probable win but also a record low for Mr Li since the rolling survey started early last month. The result is well outside the margin of error.

One element in the mix is that the Democratic Party has decided to run one of its candidates, Wu Chi-wai, separate from the others, which will water down Mr Li's share of the  voters.

Mr Wu now has 6.2 per cent of the vote share in the polls, up from 3.9 per cent two weeks ago, a statistically significant increase.

Another candidate, Andrew To Kwan-hang of the League of Social Democrats, considered part of the pan-democratic camp, has about 6.4 per cent of the vote share, according to the latest poll, up from 6.1 per cent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

Possible poll inaccuracies could signal a threat to Mr Li because Kowloon East is considered to be a leftist stronghold. Pollster Li Pang-kwong said leftists usually got 5 per cent more of the vote than the polls have shown, while the pan-democrats could have been expected to get 3 per cent less. And Professor Li said many Beijing-friendly voters tended not to respond to opinion polls, further undermining poll accuracy.

But Mr Li said: Under the list system of proportional representation, any rival would need about 40 per cent of the votes to take my seat ... I don't think any pro-establishment tickets can do that.

Mr Wu said it had been a Democratic Party decision to have him compete against other candidates, and the risks had been taken into account. He said the party would not direct voters in the final stage of the election.

I will keep on fighting hard until the polling stations close, he said.

Copyright (c) 2008. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A poll shows that the Civic Party's Fernando Cheung Chiu-hung is likely to win one of the eight seats in the New Territories West constituency.

But veteran lawmaker Albert Chan Wai-yip faces a tough fight for re- election, according to a survey last week by the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Because it has the largest number of seats among the five geographical constituencies, New Territories West has attracted 14 tickets - the largest number among the five constituencies.

Currently, three seats are held by the pro-Beijing camp and the other five by pan-democrats.

According to the poll, the pro-Beijing camp will retain only two seats on the ticket led by Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong chairman Tam Yiu-chung. The Heung Yee Kuk's Cheung Hok-ming looks like being left behind.

Other election polls indicate the same results.

The Chinese University poll also showed Liberal Party vice-chairwoman Selina Chow Liang Shuk-yee will be re- elected.

In the pan-democratic camp, victory is on the cards for Democratic Party chairman Albert Ho Chun-yan and former chairman Lee Wing-tat, Lee Cheuk- yan and Leung Yiu-chung, League of Social Democrats' Albert Chan Wai-yip, and the Civic Party's Cheung.

Cheung fought a hard battle to win the 2004 election through the social welfare functional constituency.

Sunday will be Cheung's first venture into the direct-election battlefield. But the poll shows him upstaging veterans in terms of support, including Selina Chow, Lee Wing-tat and Albert Chan.

It is reckoned his solid support should largely be attributed to the party and backing from former chief secretary for administration Anson Chan Fang On- sang.

Meanwhile, the future looks shaky for political veteran Albert Chan, who has been a legislator since 1991. Some polls show him getting just enough votes to win a seat while others indicate otherwise. As for the Federation of Trade Unions' Wong Kwok-hing, some polls give him a winning chance. In 2004, Wong was automatically elected as a legislator through the labor constituency. [email protected]

Former Chief Secretary for Administration Anson Chan issued yesterday a statement about the core values of Hong Kong people.

While there are indeed core values that we Hongkongers hold dear, they are more than the few Chan mentioned in her statement. For instance, the great majority of Hong Kong residents care about economic development and people¡¦s livelihood ¡X something Chan omitted. Her statement said nothing about this popular concern, which means what those big shots have in mind is a far cry from the general aspirations.

Some people live on pensions worth more than HK$10 million each, plus a lifelong allowance of up to tens of thousands of dollars a month. What do these upper-class elites know about the hardships of ordinary citizens?

One of the core values upheld by those who serve all voters from the ground up is to help every Hong Kong resident lead a dignified and presentable life rather than just shouting empty slogans.

As a matter of fact, the opposition¡¦s actions have often jeopardized the very ¡§core values¡¨ they claim to protect. As far as democratic development is concerned, they worked against people¡¦s wishes in 2005 when they blocked the government¡¦s constitutional reform plan through block voting, thereby delaying the democratization process.

They have also undermined judicial justice and the spirit of rule of law. It happened when the Civic Party hijacked the legal profession and turned it into a political tool for achieving its goal of becoming the ruling party.

How about political neutrality of public servants? Anson Chan advertizes herself as ¡§Hong Kong¡¦s conscience¡¨ and a ¡§representative of public servants¡¨, yet she went out of her way to campaign for her favorite political parties in the legislative election.

As for the supervision of the government, what Hong Kong people want political figures to do is work toward the improvement of governance by affirming the administration¡¦s right decisions and criticizing the wrong ones, rather than opposing the government for the sake of opposing it, which will end up paralyzing it.

The opposition camp¡¦s intention in choosing to release the statement ahead of the election day is written on the wall ¡X vote garnering, and nothing else. This is no different from Apple Daily¡¦s appeal for urgent support from the opposition¡¦s supporters in its extra edition released hours before the closing of poll stations in last year¡¦s Legislative Council by-election.

It is only fair to demand the cost of such activities be counted as election spending and shared by all opposition candidates.

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Anson Chan gets straight to the core

Outgoing lawmaker Anson Chan Fang On-sang has suggested an easy formula to help electors decide the candidates who deserve support. The Citizens' Commission on Constitutional Development, of which she is the convenor, yesterday joined political group Power for Democracy to call for candidates to pledge that they would defend Hong Kong's core values. A list of those who signed the declaration will be published in newspaper advertisements before polling day for voters' reference. Mrs Chan said candidates should defend five core values - political neutrality of the civil service, universal suffrage, rule of law, equal opportunity and effective governance. Would Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, who said on Monday the city's core values had not changed, be asked to make this vow too? "The chief executive should be the first one to defend these values," Mrs Chan said.

A critical question from Emily Lau

Emily Lau Wai-hing of The Frontier yesterday returned to her former role as journalist, asking questions at a press conference regarding the University of Hong Kong's election polls. She asked pollster Robert Chung Ting-yiu how he could better ensure his polls would not be misquoted by candidates to send out fake "situation critical" messages and influence voting behaviour. Ms Lau would have a genuine self-interest in such an inquiry. For the first time since the university's polls began, her support rate is now insufficient to win her a seat if pollsters are to be believed. She will hold a press conference today, presumably to stress that her situation is genuinely critical.

'Long Hair' changes the lyrics

At a New Territories East election forum, "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung sang innovatively along to the favourite revolutionary tune of former National People's Congress Standing Committee member Tsang Hin-chi. Instead of the words, "without the Communist Party, there would be no new China," Mr Leung sang "without the Communist Party, there would be no New Century Forum. Without New Century Forum, there would be no Pong Oi-lan." Scarlett Pong is a member of Beijing-friendly New Century Forum but has recently expressed support for universal suffrage in 2012, sparking ridicule from pan-democrats. Ms Pong insists she is an independent as New Century Forum is not a political party.

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Desperate families of abode seekers say they have been pressured to vote for government-friendly candidates by a lobby group supporting the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

They say they have been bombarded with phone calls to go to the offices of the Association for Family Reunion to fill out applications for one-way entry permits for family members who have struggled for years to gain residency in Hong Kong.

Once there, they say they are urged to vote for DAB candidates verbally and in posters on the premises.

Other posters remind them about the success of the DAB under late chairman Ma Lik in helping some abode seekers gain permits.

DAB Kowloon East candidate Chan Kam-lam, one of the contenders whose poster hangs in the association's Kowloon branch in Kwun Tong, said he was happy to receive the abode seekers' support but did not know his posters were being displayed on the association's premises.

The association's Kowloon branch chairman, Tang Ying-chui, acknowledged he supported DAB candidates but said how people voted was their business.

However, another advocacy group said it had received numerous complaints from abode seekers who said they felt under pressure, while Father Franco Mella, a long-term advocate for the abode seekers, said inviting people to fill out applications then bombarding them with political propaganda was unethical.

Yesterday, at the Kwun Tong office more than 50 abode seekers were filling in forms to apply for one-way permits. Posters for Mr Chan and the DAB's Kowloon West candidate Starry Lee Wai-king were on the walls, with the ticket numbers of DAB election lists displayed.

Slogans such as "choose your representative, vote on September 7", and "in the memory of Chairman Ma" were displayed while a notice on the wall urged association members to "take action" to support the DAB.

Last year, 25 abode seekers were granted Hong Kong residency rights aftr receiving help from the DAB.

"Sure, they asked me to vote for the DAB," said Mr Lui, 74, after filling out a form. However, he said he planned to vote for a Democratic Party candidate in Kowloon East.

Lin Tao-cheng, chairman of the Hong Kong Parents' Association for Children's Right of Abode, said he received more than 30 complaints on Sunday from abode seekers who had calls from the pro-DAB group and said they felt threatened.

Mr Lin and Father Mella said abode seekers were urged to vote for former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee on Hong Kong Island, and for DAB candidates elsewhere.

At the Kowloon branch, chairman Mr Tang declined to comment on why they were collecting one-way permit forms.

The Registration and Electoral Office said it would not comment on individual cases but would follow up any complaints.

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